
WILL YOU OUT LIVE YOUR MONEY?
By: Devvy
June 19, 2008
© 2008 – NewsWithViews.com
The American people continue to suffer the failed policies of Congress and sitting presidents. There can be no clinging to the illusion any longer that the economy is merely “soft.” The financial picture for most Americans continues to be bleak with no end in sight. As Dominic Frisby said in a recent column, “Central bankers can’t talk down inflation.” Eighteen years ago, I fell into the issue of the privately owned Federal Reserve Banking System and my journey began. I educated myself about inflation, fiat currency, what happens when the dollar falls, why gold goes up. Oh, yeah, it can be dry and it can be confusing, but without knowledge, we can’t solve problems. Here’s one example: How many Americans know anything about derivatives? Oh, boy, this one is a killer:
Total Notional Value Of Derivatives Outstanding Surpasses One Quadrillion. “This means that no OTC derivative house can be allowed to go broke. This means that whatever funds are required to rescue failing international investment banks, banks and financial entities will be provided. Keep this economic law in mind. Monetary inflation proceeds price inflation and is its primary cause in economic history from Rome to present. Nothing can stop the juggernaut of price inflation heading towards every nation like a runaway freight train down a mountain.” Jim Sinclair would know he because he’s an expert in this field and he’s always on target.
How many of the 170 million adult aged Americans in this country understand our monetary system, fiat currency and the federal income tax scheme? Ten, twenty million, tops? Right now, many millions continue juggling credit and too little cash to put food on the table and gas in the tank. Little do they know what is still to come: the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane:
June 4, 2008. Staring Into The Abyss With Wide Open Eyes: “Millions must have seen this report. The presidential candidates had nothing to say. The White House had nothing to say. Congress had nothing to say. Economically, this much is certain. The debt is unpayable, even if Americans who still have any are stripped of all their assets to pay for it.”
June 8, 2008. Credit crisis expands, hitting all kinds of consumer loans
June 12, 2008. “When Bush invaded Iraq in 2003, the average price of oil that year was about $27 per barrel, or about $31 in inflation adjusted 2007 dollars. The price rose another $10 in 2004 to an average annual price of $42 (in 2007 dollars), another $12 in 2005, $7 in 2006, and $4 in 2007 to $65. But in the last few months the price has more than doubled to about $135. It is difficult to explain a $70 jump in price in terms other than speculation…Of course, Americans don’t get real inflation numbers from their government and have not since the Consumer Price Index was rigged during the Clinton administration to hold down Social Security payments by denying retirees their full cost of living adjustments.”
June 10, 2008. Mortgage Delinquencies Rise Nearly 62 Percent in First Quarter
June 13, 2008. Biggest Inflation Jump in 6 Months
June 13, 2008. Foreclosures Rise 48% in May as Repossessions Double. “One in every 483 U.S. households either lost the home to foreclosure, received a default notice or was warned of a pending auction, RealtyTrac said. That was the highest rate since the Irvine, California-based company began reporting in January 2005 and the 29th consecutive month of year-over-year increases.” Do people realize what this does to the local economy and how it affects the ability of someone to save for their golden years so they won’t be a burden on society?
36 Retail Stores Closing Their Doors
Credit Default Swaps The Next Crisis. Sub Prime is Just ‘Vorspeise’. “While attention has been focussed on the relatively tiny U.S. “sub-prime” home mortgage default crisis as the center of the current financial and credit crisis impacting the Anglo-Saxon banking world, a far larger problem is now coming into focus. Sub-prime or high-risk Collateralized Mortgage Obligations, CMOs as they are called, are only the tip of a colossal iceberg of dodgy credits which are beginning to go sour. The next crisis is already beginning in the $62 TRILLION market for Credit Default Swaps. You never heard of them? It’s time to take a look, then.
June 6, 2008. Pet owners fear tough economic choices. Franklin, Massachusetts (AP) — “Diana Bardsley wiped tears from her eyes as she recalled taking food off her plate to feed her beloved spaniel Hunter and two Siamese cats. Doreen Kazijian said she delayed buying her own medication so she could afford to treat her cats’ ailments. Her greatest fear: that she could be forced to surrender the animals as she struggled to stretch her food stamps and Social Security income to meet the escalating cost of living.”
January 30, 2008. Pets Abandoned by Owners After Foreclosure. “The house was ravaged — its floors ripped, walls busted and lights smashed by owners who trashed their home before a bank foreclosed on it. Hidden in the wreckage was an abandoned member of the family: a starving pit bull. The dog found by workers was too far gone to save — another example of how pets are becoming the newest victims of the nation’s mortgage crisis as homeowners leave animals behind when they can no longer afford their property.
I feel very bad for Americans who have lost their homes and the millions more who will over the next year or two. Sadly, millions bought into mortgages they should never have qualified for and are now paying the price of a contract between them and the lender, not between them and Congress. While that body of fools continue their attempt to divert the people’s attention away from THEIR massive failures (blame the oil companies) and the banking system, the same hypocrites have benefited from disaster: June 14 (Bloomberg) — “Senator Kent Conrad said he was given preferential treatment on a mortgage from Countrywide Financial Corp. and will write a $10,500 check to charity.” How big of him. Had he not got caught, there would be no check to charity. Let’s not forget how many of these crooks in Congress (and the ones who have jumped ship the past few years) are raking in the bucks from the sweat of your labor via earmarks. Let’s not forget the 151 members of the U.S. Congress who directly profit from these grotesque, unconstitutional “wars of liberation” over in Iraq and Afghanistan:
“Who profits from the Iraq war? More than a quarter of senators and congressmen have invested at least $196 million of their own money in companies doing business with the Department of Defense (DoD) that profit from the death and destruction in Iraq. According to the latest reports, 151 members of Congress invested close to a quarter-billion in companies that received defense contracts of at least $5 million in 2006. These companies got more than $275.6 billion from the government in 2006, or $755 million per day, according to FedSpending.org, a web site of the watchdog group OMBWatch.” The rest of the column with all the numbers and names of these thieves can be found here.
Their profits are stolen from you, from your labor every day via the federal income tax. Because there is NO money in the U.S. Treasury, the trillion dollars blown over in the Middle East has to be borrowed from the banking cartel. You, me, our children and grand children, little better than oxen to the yoke, are forced to pay the massive interest so these crooks in Congress can continue to borrow “money” for their wars from which they profit. Because there is no more bling to scratch from the weary American worker to pay for their folly and endless wars, where will the voracious appetite for money by Congress come from? More our of debt sold off to our enemies like Communist China?
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One of the most dangerous ideas thrown out there (besides Richard C. Cook) comes from William Glynn, the founder and Managing Director of Collective IQ, ranked the #1 Corporate Venture Capital Platform in the world:
“Right now, China, Russia, India and Saudi Arabia basically own the United States. Our economy is the real target of terrorists and this is our potential downfall,” says Glynn. His solution is transparent and uncomplicated… a 10% solution. “If we are to prevent another Great Depression we need to pass one simple law: All pension plans, endowments, 401(k)s and the like will be required to allocate 10% of their portfolios to buy back U.S. debt and currency.”
“Right now, China, Russia, India and Saudi Arabia basically own the United States. Our economy is the real target of terrorists and this is our potential downfall
With more than 40 trillion dollars currently invested in these types of accounts, Glynn asserts that some four trillion dollars could be freed up in a matter of days to wipe out the national debt, buy back the $1.6 trillion in U.S. debt currently owned by China and more. He suggests that approximately one trillion dollars go into a 10-year Zero Coupon Bond with the proceeds ultimately going back to the endowments and pension plans. “Rather than seeing this as simply giving money back to the government, it’s really a 10-year interest-free loan that has incredible benefits,” he explains.”
Andy Jackson would have taken Mr. Glynn to the nearest oak tree. Americans had better pray the looters in Congress don’t pick up on this lunacy: Steal 10% of your 401(k) to pay down the “national debt” to the banking cartel for the massive fraud Congress has perpetrated on us? Is he that naive to think these buzzards in Congress would ever stick to the game plan? Oh, please. All you would be doing is handing them a new credit card. Don’t look to Comrade Barack Hussein Obama to cure this hemorrhaging. He has never so much as whispered the real and only solutions to our monetary and banking crisis and neither did Comrade Hillary Clinton during her 17 month ego trip. Just where in the U.S. Constitution does it give Congress the authority to steal the fruits of your labor to give to others for any reason? Congressman Davy Crockett said it best; click here.
Juan McCain by his own admission: ‘The Issue Of Economics Is Not Something I’ve Understood As Well As I Should’ is completely unqualified to sign spending bills and legislation dealing with our monetary system. Those committed to the Obama-McCain Titanic should get their affairs in order because they have sealed their fate.
Inflation is killing the middle class and the poor. As my friend, constitutional attorney and expert on fiat currency, Larry Becraft, recently said, “When hyper-inflation hits and gold is one million dollars an ounce, no one will part with their gold.” This short, concise column by Derry Brownfield will give you a good understanding of what Larry means: Silver, Gold and the IRS. Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke says: “Risk of ‘Substantial Downturn’ Lessens, Vows Inflation Fight.” Old Ben’s had his head stuck in rectal darkness for so long, he couldn’t tell you how to solve a ten piece puzzle much less “fight inflation.” Inflation and deflation is caused by his central bank. It is the cancer eating this nation alive. The power brokers controlling our lives know they’ve screwed things up royally, now it’s time for the solution! NY Fed chief in push for global bank framework. This is another gigantic step in cementing one world government and enslaving all of us under foreign dictatorship.
Back to the original question: Will you out live your money? If we don’t get rid of as many incumbents in Congress as possible and put a man in the White House who knows the central bank and monetary issue and who will appoint brilliant individuals like Dr. Edwin Vieira as Secretary of the Treasury, no amount of hand wringing by these deceivers in Congress is going to return America to a prosperous nation. We will only continue to sink further into national poverty and yes, TENS of MILLIONS of Americans will find they have nothing but social security and perhaps a small pension to eke out their “golden years,” while the fat cats in Congress enjoy their millions from the sweat off your back.
Have people forgotten what happened to our fellow Americans who worked for ENRON? Everything they worked for all their lives, poof! Gone. Americans seem oblivious to the fact that these crooks and just plain ignorant members of Congress are playing with their future. Look at where we are now and while I wish I could say different, it is going to get much worse.
Do Americans have any idea the numbers we’re talking here when tens of millions of Americans out live their money and must depend on the state for food, lodging and medical treatment? Too many Americans have forgotten what I was taught by my parents who were taught by theirs (they all lived through the manufactured “Great Depression): Save for a rainy day. Save for your old age. Don’t spend more than you make. Tens of millions are guilty of this and they don’t seem to give a damn, but they will.
Those who do know their personal obligations for their golden years can’t get ahead because we are being raped by the federal and state governments to pay for their complete and total mismanagement of our money and lives. People send me email all the time asking me, when will people wake up? When will the reality and the numbers finally sink in? My reply: hungry bellies make for angry mobs. Wait until the grocery stores have little to choose from and people still don’t have enough coin to purchase that loaf of bread because diesel is $5.75/gallon and the truckers have to pass along the cost to the consumer. Is it any wonder so many incumbents in Congress are taking their ill gotten gains and will not seek reelection? (5 Democrats, 27 Republicans as of February 10, 2008.) Rats jumping ship.
If you would like to learn more about gold and why it is imperative you own some, you might check out El Dorado Gold’s web site. They have a substantial amount of educational information to help better understand the issue of gold.
Change cannot and will not happen with the same players. Congress has refused to abolish the central bank, get rid of the unnecessary federal income tax and take swift, decisive action on other issues like withholding and a sane energy policy. These same players (with the exception of Congressman Ron Paul) will NOT do it next January because they didn’t do it last January or the ten January’s before that. The solutions have always been there, but until you put individuals in office who fully understand the U.S. Constitution (or State Constitution for your legislature), things will remain the same. Is that what you want?
Educational Links:
1 – How HUD Mortgage Policy Fed The Crisis
2 – Clueless: Bernanke Blames Saving Glut For Housing Bubble
3 – Long View: Fall in US house prices heralds problems for all
4 – Economist challenges government data
5 – Pelosi & her Brassiere Brigade
6 – Minimum Wage and Fascism
7 – How to Create Jobs and Cut Medical Care Costs
8 – The Next Big Spending Spree
Comrade Obama
1 – Hike Social Security tax, says Obama
2 – Obama Would Tax Wealthy to Pay for Universal Health Care (how very communist of him)
3 – Obama’s Energy Stance as Capricious as the Wind
4 – Hike Social Security tax, says Obama
5 – Obama Funder Soros Is Bush War Profiteer
6 – Obama wants higher payroll tax on incomes above $250,000
Juan McCain
1 – Foreclosure Phil
2 – McCain, Obama Trade Fire on Tax Plans
3 – McCain Lies About Social Security Privatization
4 – McCain promises billions in spending
5 – McCain temper boiled over in ’92 tirade, called wife a ‘c**t’
6 – The wife U.S. Republican John McCain callously left behind
Truth and solutions
1 – March 17, 2005: Are Monetary & Banking Crises Inevitable
in the Near Future?
2 – March 21, 2005. Will The Coming Monetary Crisis Provide Opportunity For Reform?
3 – 6:06 video: Ron Paul grills Bernanke on monetary deception
4 – The Federal Reserve Monopoly Over Money
5 – The Federal Reserve System: A Fatal Parasite on the American Body Politic
6 – Short treatise: A Caveat Against Injustice, written in 1752 by Roger Sherman, author of Art. 1, § 10, cl. 1, of the U.S. Constitution
Total Notional Value Of Derivatives
Outstanding Surpasses
One Quadrillion
By Jim Sinclair
6-10-8
The notional value of all outstanding derivatives now totals approximately $1.144 QUADRILLION.
This appears to be Bank of International Settlement Spin to announce the largest gain in derivatives outstanding since they started to report. As of the last report it appeared that both listed and OTC derivatives was under $600 trillion. Now listed credit derivatives alone stood at $548 Trillion. The OTC derivatives are shown as $596 billion notional value, as of December 2007. One can only imagine what number they are at now.
Well we hit a QUADRILLION. We have more than $1000 trillion dollars in all derivatives outstanding. That is simply NUTS because notional value becomes real value when either counterparty to the OTC derivative goes bankrupt. $548 trillion plus $596 trillion means $1.144 quadrillion.
It would be an interesting piece of research to see what the breakdown is of listed derivatives according to exchange to see if it adds up to the reported number. Spin is now everywhere.
This means that no OTC derivative house can be allowed to go broke. This means that whatever funds are required to rescue failing international investment banks, banks and financial entities will be provided.
Keep this economic law in mind. Monetary inflation proceeds price inflation and is its primary cause in economic history from Rome to present.
Nothing can stop the juggernaut of price inflation heading towards every nation like a runaway freight train down a mountain.
http://jsmineset.com
Credit crisis expands, hitting all kinds of consumer loans
By Kevin G. Hall | McClatchy Newspapers
WASHINGTON — The credit crisis triggered by bad home loans is spreading to other areas, forcing banks to tighten credit and probably extending the credit crisis that’s dragging down the economy well into next year, and perhaps beyond.
That means consumers are going to have an increasingly difficult time getting bank loans for car purchases, credit cards, home equity credit lines, student loans and even commercial real estate, experts say.
When financial analyst Meredith Whitney wrote in a report last October that the nation’s largest bank, Citigroup, lacked sufficient capital for the risks it had assumed, she was considered a heretic.
However, Whitney was proved correct: Citigroup pushed out its CEO, sought foreign investors and slashed its dividend. Her comments now carry added weight on Wall Street, and she has a new warning for ordinary Americans: The crisis in credit markets is far from over, and it increasingly will affect consumers.
“In fact, we believe that what lies ahead will be worse than what is behind us,” Whitney and colleagues at Oppenheimer & Co. wrote in a lengthy report last month about threats faced by big national banks, including Bank of America, Wachovia and others.
The warning is scary considering what’s already behind us in the credit crisis — the resignation or firing since last August of CEOs at almost every large commercial or investment bank; the Federal Reserve lowering its benchmark lending rate by 3.25 percentage points; a Fed-brokered deal to sell investment bank Bear Stearns; and weekly auctions of short-term loans from the Fed worth billions of dollars to keep credit markets functioning.
Whitney argues that the worst is still ahead because the financial tools that enabled credit to flow so freely to homeowners and consumers for most of this decade are likely to remain in a prolonged shutdown indefinitely.
“After years of inherently flawed underwriting, banks face the worst yet of the credit crisis — over $170 billion in write-downs and charge-offs from consumer loans,” Whitney told McClatchy. The same kind of losses from housing may be ahead for credit extended to consumers, she said.
At the heart of the nation’s lending boom from 1996 to 2006 was a process called securitization. In housing, this process involved pooling mortgages for sale to investors as special bonds called mortgage-backed securities. Monthly mortgage payments were also pooled and served as the return to investors.
Securitization meant that most home loans no longer sat on a bank’s balance sheet. Instead, they were sold into a secondary market, where they were sliced and diced in a process that was supposed to spread investment risk a mile wide and an inch deep.
For every dollar of mortgage loans that banks kept on their balance sheets since 2000, another $7 of these loans were sold to the secondary market and securitized. This led to the industry joke that “a rolling loan gathered no loss.” Risk was passed along to the next holder of the debt. Securitization added what bankers call liquidity, a fancy term for having more money on hand to lend.
Now, the structured finance that enabled Americans to borrow cheaply has gone away, at least in the housing market.
“With that source of liquidity removed, the sheer number of buyers who can qualify for mortgages and therefore buy homes will decline dramatically,” Whitney told McClatchy. “It stands to reason, therefore, that less demand and more supply will drive home prices down well below current expectations.”
In addition, interest is waning in other areas of lending where securitization has also been common — car loans, credit cards, home equity lines of credit, student loans and even commercial real estate. It means that lending in those areas is growing tighter.
“There are still many areas where people aren’t going to be able to do transactions that they were able to a year ago,” said Sean Davys, managing director of the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA), the trade association for big finance. “We do expect that it will take a significant amount of time for the market to return to any sense of normalcy. What’s your reference to normalcy? It’s going back several years, not just a couple of years.”
These other areas of lending are suffering through a buyer’s strike. Investors just don’t have much interest in buying anything whose underlying asset are pooled loans.
Because there are no buyers, banks are taking an accounting hit as they mark down the value of the securitized mortgages they own, and Whitney believes they’ll have to do so with other types of securitized loans, such as car loans and credit card debt.
That’s likely to result in a large pullback in bank lending. She forecasts tighter lending standards, banks with increasingly limited capital, a growing need for banks to set aside more money to offset losses and tough new federal regulations to protect borrowers, which would reduce lending further.
If the positive side of securitization was that it let banks lend more by passing loans into a secondary market, the inverse is now true. Banks are less willing or able to lend — they collectively set aside more than $10 billion to shore up their balance sheets in the first quarter of 2008. That’s meant that consumers must pay more to borrow to buy a car or fix a home, and it’s harder to get loans.
“There are a lot of businesses and individuals that are going to find that their access to credit is a lot more limited than it used to be and it’s a lot more expensive,” said Mark Vitner, a senior economist with Wachovia, a large national bank headquartered in Charlotte, N.C. “And the reason why is the lessened ability to securitize these loans and sell them in the secondary market. That lack of liquidity is being priced into all new loans.”
Higher borrowing costs are on top of tighter lending. The Whitney report estimated that by 2010 credit card issuers would withdraw more than $2 trillion in credit that they’ve been extending to consumers.
“We’re already seeing examples of people seeing their credit limits reduced,” said Joseph Ridout, a spokesman for Consumer Action, a consumer rights group based in San Francisco.
More troubling, he said, some banks are doubling interest rates on customers who are current on payments but considered a credit risk because of changes in their credit profile. The hikes apply to credit-card debt already racked up.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke worried about the state of the credit markets in a June 3 speech. Financial institutions already have taken $300 billion in write-downs and credit losses, he said, noting that “balance sheet pressures and the relatively high cost of new bank capital have reduced the willingness and ability of these institutions to make markets and extend credit.”
Translation: Expect less credit for consumers and businesses and higher borrowing costs.
It’s a bad omen for a sluggish economy struggling to stay out of recession.
Still, not everyone is so downbeat.
Bert Ely, a banking consultant who was prominent during the savings and loan crisis, thinks that once the economy rebounds, banks will look a lot stronger. That’s because the loans they’re bringing back on their balance sheets will look better over time.
“Many of the losses financial institutions have reported will essentially reverse out (and become accounting gains) . . . that’s why large institutions have been raising capital to hang on to these securities so they don’t have to sell them at what would be unrealistically high losses,” said Ely.
He nonetheless agreed with Whitney that “there are still some serious issues with securitization” and the credit markets are unlikely to bounce back within two or three years.
ON THE WEB
To ask a question about this story or any economic question, go to McClatchy’s Econ Q and A here:
www.mcclatchydc.com/qna/forum/questions_and_answers_about_the_economy/index.html
02:06:03 06/10/2008
annashere
Thank you so much for the reasoning behind the credit crunch.
So – greedy lenders? What a surprise…
01:06:38 06/10/2008
catriley
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Corporate America is sick. I agree with “strangetimes”, it makes absolutely NO sense to jack up the interest rates on people who have a change in their credit “profile”, it only makes the spectre of default more possible.
I’m a small biz owner, and I would never hire a consultant who had such ridiculous ideas as corporate America now espouses. Let’s see.. punish your best customers and make it more likely they will default on their debt to you. Make it harder for qualified buyers with good credit to qualify for a mortgage. And still award enormous, multi-million $$ parachutes to disgraced CEOs.
Brilliant.
01:06:43 06/09/2008
strangetimes
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Swell. So these institutions will be forced to conduct business the relatively sane way they did 40 years ago – still grasping & greedy, but not repossessing the first-born?
Note the item about doubling credit card interest rates on customers who are current with payments, but have a change in their credit profile. Can I cut my Wachovia mortgage payment in half because the CEO changed their business profile?
Great logic: assume that if a customer MIGHT POSSIBLY PERHAPS have some financial problems in the future, you should raise the interest rates now thus guaranteeing the situation you’re worried about. Idiots.
Can’t afford to buy anything, put US companies out of business, rising unemployment, more foreclosures, more bankruptcies, more illness – yup, trickling down on the serfs always produces the same results. Give the tax breaks & incentives to Big Business and this is always how it ultimately shakes out.
Thank God I have my leaden parachute (pitiful pension) and Social Security (ha, ha, ha) and penny wrappers.
10:06:54 06/09/2008
wardpo
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Without corporate welfare the US banking system would collapse. The current crop of capitalists running this country are mostly small-minded, greedy, rather uninteligent, corrupt losers. They don’t understand sound buisness practice. They blow whatever earnings their corporations make on frivolities. They stick it to the shareholders. American business is mostly a giant scam. We have become a nation of snake oil salesmen. Warren Buffet, one of the few true capitalists left in this country gets it right when he tells you to invest outside the US.
06:06:55 06/09/2008
jfmxl
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‘Because there are some people in this country, in this administration, who have an unshakable faith that government regulation of economic activity is unalterably per se evil.’
That’s just for public consumption. They know full well what’s going to happen once they’ve kicked out the jambs, they make their money and run… ‘the resignation or firing since last August of CEOs at almost every large commercial or investment bank’ was accompanied by those same crooks cleaning out the cookie jar on the way out the door, on top of what they’d paid themselves for coming up with the brilliant scams they’d used to print money in the first place.
All this “conservative philosophy” pretense is dropped the instant their over weaning greed gets them into trouble.
It’s nothing but a cover to get them into power on the backs of the people they hurt the most once they start wielding power’s levers.
And when the house of cards suffers total collapse you’ll find them long gone.
Warren Buffet has been out of the USD for years.
01:06:00 06/09/2008
borisjimski
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Why is it at all necessary that our economy keep bouncing from one extreme to the other? Because there are some people in this country, in this administration, who have an unshakable faith that government regulation of economic activity is unalterably per se evil.
Why Oil Prices Are So High
A Weak Dollar, Bad Fed Policies and Hedge Fund Speculators
How to explain the oil price? Why is it so high? Are we running out? Are supplies disrupted, or is the high price a reflection of oil company greed or OPEC greed. Are Chavez and the Saudis conspiring against us?
In my opinion, the two biggest factors in oil’s high price are the weakness in the US dollar’s exchange value and the liquidity that the Federal Reserve is pumping out.
The dollar is weak because of large trade and budget deficits, the closing of which is beyond American political will. As abuse wears out the US dollar’s reserve currency role, sellers demand more dollars as a hedge against its declining exchange value and ultimate loss of reserve currency status.
In an effort to forestall a serious recession and further crises in derivative instruments, the Federal Reserve is pouring out liquidity that is financing speculation in oil futures contracts. Hedge funds and investment banks are restoring their impaired capital structures with profits made by speculating in highly leveraged oil future contracts, just as real estate speculators flipping contracts pushed up home prices. The oil futures bubble, too, will pop, hopefully before new derivatives are created on the basis of high oil prices.
There are other factors affecting the price of oil. The prospect of an Israeli/US attack on Iran has increased current demand in order to build stocks against disruption. No one knows the consequence of such an ill-conceived act of aggression, and the uncertainty pushes up the price of oil as the entire Middle East could be engulfed in conflagration. However, storage facilities are limited, and the impact on price of larger inventories has a limit.
Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi recently stated, “There is no justification for the current rise in prices.” What the minister means is that there are no shortages or supply disruptions. He means no real reasons as distinct from speculative or psychological reasons.
The run up in oil price coincides with a period of heightened US and Israeli military aggression in the Middle East. However, the biggest jump has been in the last 18 months.
When Bush invaded Iraq in 2003, the average price of oil that year was about $27 per barrel, or about $31 in inflation adjusted 2007 dollars. The price rose another $10 in 2004 to an average annual price of $42 (in 2007 dollars), another $12 in 2005, $7 in 2006, and $4 in 2007 to $65. But in the last few months the price has more than doubled to about $135. It is difficult to explain a $70 jump in price in terms other than speculation.
Oil prices have been high in the past. Until 2008, the record monthly oil price was $104 in December 1979 (measured in December 2007 dollars). As recently as 1998 the real price of oil was lower than in 1946 when the nominal price of oil was $1.63 per barrel. During the Bush regime, the price of oil in 2007 dollars has risen from $27 to approximately $135.
Possibly, the rise in the oil price was held down, prior to the recent jump, by expectations that Democrats would eventually end the conflict and restrain Israel in the interest of Middle East peace and justice for the Palestinians.
Now that Obama has pledged allegiance to AIPAC and adopted Bush’s position toward Iran, the high oil price could be a forecast that US/Israeli policy is likely to result in substantial supply disruptions. Still, the recent Israeli statements that an attack on Iran was “inevitable” only jumped the oil price about $8.
Perhaps more difficult to understand than the high price of oil are the low US long-term interest rates. US interest rates are actually below the rate of inflation, to say nothing of the imperiled exchange value of the dollar. Economists who assume rational participants in rational markets cannot explain why lenders would indefinitely accept interest rates below the rate of inflation.
Of course, Americans don’t get real inflation numbers from their government and have not since the Consumer Price Index was rigged during the Clinton administration to hold down Social Security payments by denying retirees their full cost of living adjustments. According to statistician John Williams, using the pre-Clinton era measure of the CPI produces a current CPI of about 7.5%.
Understating inflation makes real GDP growth appear higher. If inflation were properly measured, the US has probably experienced no real GDP growth in the 21st century.
Williams reports that for decades political administrations have fiddled with the inflation and employment numbers to make themselves look slightly better. The cumulative effect has been to deprive these measurements of veracity. If I understand Williams, today both inflation and unemployment rates, as originally measured, are around 12 per cent.
By pumping out money in an effort to forestall recession and paper over balance sheet problems, the Federal Reserve is driving up commodity and food prices in general. Yet American real incomes are not growing. Even without jobs offshoring, US economic policy has put the bulk of the population on a path to lower living standards.
The crisis that looms for the US is the loss of world currency role. Once the dollar loses that role, the US government will not be able to finance its operations by borrowing abroad, and foreigners will cease to finance the massive US trade deficit. This crisis will eliminate the US as a world power.
Paul Craig Roberts was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury in the Reagan administration. He was Associate Editor of the Wall Street Journal editorial page and Contributing Editor of National Review. He is coauthor of The Tyranny of Good Intentions.He can be reached at: PaulCraigRoberts@yahoo.com
Global Research Articles by Paul Craig Roberts
http://globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=9300
Mortgage Delinquencies Rise Nearly 62 Percent in First Quarter
By AMY MCALISTER
Published: June 10, 2008
Related stories:
Mortgage Delinquencies To Jump 34 Percent By Year End: TransUnion
Experian: Severe Deliquencies Up 15 Percent in February
Home Equity Line Delinquencies Continue to Rise: Report
Home Equity Delinquencies Jump
CRE Delinquencies Stay Near Record Lows: Report
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While it’s likely no longer surprising for many market participants, a report by consumer credit bureau TransUnion released Monday found that mortgage delinquencies had increased for the fifth straight quarter during Q1, while consumers managed to add to their overall mortgage debt load during the quarter as well.
Borrowers more than 60 days in arrears on their mortgages hit a record high 3.23 percent for the first three months of 2008, TransUnion said — that’s up 8 percent over the previous quarter’s 2.99 percent average, and is a staggering 61.5 percent higher than the first quarter 2007.
Mortgage borrower delinquency rates in the first quarter of 2008 were highest in Nevada (5.81 percent) followed closely by Florida (5.38 percent), while the lowest mortgage delinquency rates were found in North Dakota (1.17 percent), Wyoming (1.41 percent) and South Dakota (1.48 percent). Delinquency trends clearly mirror the regional distress being felt in key states, although it’s worth noting that even states with comparatively lower rates of mortgage distress are still exhibiting historically high amounts of borrower delinquencies.
Somewhat confoundingly, the average national mortgage debt per mortgage borrower rose slightly to $191,917 from the previous quarter’s $191,370 total, TransUnion reported; the first quarter 2008 average represents a 5.38 percent increase in average mortgage debt load compared to the first quarter 2007 of $182,126.
The credit bureau suggested in a press statement that increasing mortgage debt is the result of consumers’ expectation that perhaps 2008 could represent a year with excellent buying opportunities. It also could reflect the distress being felt by consumers, many of whom are seeing their reported loan balances increase due to workouts or loan recapitalization, sources suggested to Housing Wire.
“The market continues to see the effect of the mortgage crisis across the country as delinquency rates again increased over the previous period,” said Keith Carson, a senior consultant in TransUnion’s financial services group. “However, this increase was not as substantial as was seen between the third and fourth quarters of 2007, possibly reflecting the impact of a tightening in the lending policies of financial institutions.”
Delinquencies grew the fastest in Alaska, of all places, during the first quarter — rising 28.4 percent, enough to top rising delinquencies in California, which saw DQs jump 25.4 percent, and Nevada, where DQs jump 24.1 percent.
Carson said that he expected the national deliquency rate to top 4 percent by the end of 2008, and then stabilize in 2009 as home prices bounce off of what the credit bureau is predicting as a bottom in housing prices.
http://www.freedomsphoenix.com/Find-Freedom.htm?At=034329&From=News
Friday, June 13, 2008
Inflation Jumps 0.6% in May
Inflation shot up in May at the fastest pace in six months, pushed higher by soaring costs for gasoline and other types of energy.
The U.S. Labor Department reported Friday that consumer prices rose by 0.6% last month, the biggest one-month increase since last November, as gasoline costs surged by 5.7%. Food prices, which have also been rising sharply, were up 0.3% as the cost of beef and bakery products showed big increases.
Core inflation, which excludes energy and food, edged up a more moderate 0.2% in May. But even there, core prices are up 2.3% over the past 12 months, above the Federal Reserve’s comfort zone.
http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/markets/economy/inflation-jumps-/
Foreclosures Rise 48% in May as Repossessions Double (Update2)
By Bob Ivry
June 13 (Bloomberg) — Banks repossessed twice as many homes in May and foreclosure filings rose 48 percent from a year ago as falling house prices trapped borrowers in mortgages they couldn’t afford, RealtyTrac Inc. said in a report today.
One in every 483 U.S. households either lost the home to foreclosure, received a default notice or was warned of a pending auction, RealtyTrac said. That was the highest rate since the Irvine, California-based company began reporting in January 2005 and the 29th consecutive month of year-over-year increases. Nevada, California and Arizona posted the highest rates in the U.S. and New Jersey entered the top 10.
“It’s definitely a different kind of market than what we got used to a couple years ago,” said Devin Reiss, owner of Realty 500 Reiss Corp. in Las Vegas. “We used to sell homes in a day. Now 50 percent of our sales are foreclosures.”
Foreclosures add to inventory and crowd out regular sales, Michelle Meyer and Ethan Harris, economists at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in New York, wrote in a report yesterday. Foreclosures will account for 30 percent of national home sales this year as 1.2 million foreclosed single-family homes will eventually enter the market, they said. They estimate foreclosed properties, which typically sell for about 20 percent less than other homes, will depress home prices nationally by 6 percent.
Feedback Loop
“The risk is that an adverse feedback loop will develop, in which problems in the housing market undercut the economy, causing even more stress in the housing and mortgage markets,” Meyer and Harris wrote.
The percentage of total outstanding U.S. homes in some stage of foreclosure in the first quarter was 2.47, the Washington-based Mortgage Bankers Association reported. The average over the last 30 years has been 0.98 percent, the industry group said. RealtyTrac’s numbers reflect new filings.
A homeowner usually receives a notice of default after falling more than 90 days behind on mortgage payments. If the borrower still doesn’t pay what’s owed, the property is sold to the highest bidder at an auction, typically held at a county courthouse. If bids don’t reach a set amount, the lender takes ownership. Such houses are referred to as REO, or “real estate- owned.”
Repossessions
Lenders took possession of 73,794 houses in May, more than doubling the 28,548 REOs in May 2007, RealtyTrac said. That pushed total REOs to more than 700,000, RealtyTrac said.
“Right now, lenders are afraid to lend and buyers are afraid they’ll be under water in a year, so unless something dramatic happens we’re going to continue to see the trend go in the wrong direction,” said Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac’s vice president of marketing.
Legislation that would allow the federal government to guarantee up to $300 billion in refinanced mortgages passed the House of Representatives and awaits debate in the Senate, which is scheduled to recess before the July 4 holiday.
Government help would make it easier for homebuyers to get loans and would ease the number of foreclosures, said John Gall, president of the Arizona Association of Realtors and owner of Arizona Land Quest LLC in Kingman, Arizona.
“Resolving credit issues is going to require cooperation between Wall Street and Washington to provide a secure platform for lenders to loosen up their criteria,” Gall said. “It would absolutely help here in Arizona.”
Arizona
Arizona‘s foreclosure rate — one in every 201 households received a filing in May — was a 119 percent increase compared with May 2007 and ranked third in the U.S., RealtyTrac said.
Only Nevada, with one in every 118 households, and California, with one in every 183, had higher filing rates in May, the company said.
One in every 467 New Jersey households received a foreclosure filing in May, making it No. 10 on RealtyTrac’s list of states. That represented an 89 percent increase from a year ago and a 44 percent increase from April, RealtyTrac said.
Other states in the top 10 were Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Georgia, Texas and Illinois.
The number of national foreclosure filings grew 7 percent from April, according to RealtyTrac.
The nationwide rate of default warnings in May increased 1 percent from April and the number of auction notices fell 3 percent, the company said.
Stockton, California
Metropolitan areas in California and Florida accounted for nine out of the top 10 metro foreclosure rates for the second month in a row, RealtyTrac said. Seven California metro areas were in the top 10: Stockton, Merced, Modesto, Riverside-San Bernardino, Vallejo-Fairfield, Bakersfield and Sacramento.
Stockton‘s rate, one in every 75 households, was more than six times the national average, the company said.
“One of the big problems is the banks have been deluged and are way behind in actually doing the foreclosures,” said Alan Nevin, chief economist with the California Building Industry Association in San Diego. Nevin said he’s forecasting lower foreclosure rates in California starting in the last three months of the year.
The Cape Coral-Fort Myers area, on Florida‘s Gulf Coast, had the second-highest metro foreclosure rate in May, with one in every 79 households. The other Florida area in the top 10 was Port St. Lucie-Fort Pierce, on the Atlantic coast, at No. 10.
The only city outside Florida and California in the top 10 was Las Vegas.
RealtyTrac said it has a database of more than 1.5 million properties and monitors foreclosure filings, including default notices, auction sale notices and bank seizures.
To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Ivry in New York at bivry@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: June 13, 2008 11:08 EDT
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aA1ZBbzQ6gzA&refer=home
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